── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Arthur Fils 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Arthur Fils
Alex De Minaur
56%44%
Hard: 53% / 47%
Clay: 63% / 37%
Grass: 30% / 70%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Arthur Fils
93th · elite
Alex De Minaur
72th · strong
Return
Arthur Fils
95th · elite
Alex De Minaur
99th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#6
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
FRA
country
AUS
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Arthur Fils■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
Grass0–1
Clay1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-20 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R16 | Arthur Fils | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2026-02-09 | Rotterdam | Hard | R32 | Alex De Minaur | 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2024-07-01 | Wimbledon | Grass | R16 | Alex De Minaur | 6-2 6-4 4-6 6-3 |
| 2024-04-15 | Barcelona | Clay | R16 | Arthur Fils | 7-5 6-2 |