── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Andrey Rublev a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Andrey Rublev
48%52%
Hard: 48% / 52%
Clay: 27% / 73%
Grass: 16% / 84%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniel Merida Aguilar
39th · below avg
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Return
Daniel Merida Aguilar
89th · strong
Andrey Rublev
80th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#28
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
RUS
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniel Merida Aguilar■ Andrey Rublev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | US Open | Hard | R64 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | 6-7(3) 6-2 6-4 6-4 |