── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex Michelsen a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniel Merida Aguilar
Alex Michelsen
47%53%
Hard: 37% / 63%
Clay: 70% / 30%
Grass: 21% / 79%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniel Merida Aguilar
39th · below avg
Alex Michelsen
72th · strong
Return
Daniel Merida Aguilar
89th · strong
Alex Michelsen
88th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#31
model rank
#26
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
USA
188cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniel Merida Aguilar■ Alex Michelsen
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | R32 | Alex Michelsen | 7-6(5) 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | 6-4 6-7(4) 6-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R128 | Alex Michelsen | 6-3 6-4 |