── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Ben Shelton 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Ben Shelton
Frances Tiafoe
57%43%
Hard: 62% / 38%
Clay: 49% / 51%
Grass: 64% / 36%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Ben Shelton
98th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
70th · strong
Return
Ben Shelton
20th · below avg
Frances Tiafoe
68th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#18
model rank
#31
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
193cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Ben Shelton■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
Clay1–0
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | QF | Ben Shelton | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 4-6 7-5 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-04-01 | Houston | Clay | F | Ben Shelton | 7-5 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Ben Shelton | 6-2 3-6 7-6(7) 6-2 |