── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Ben Shelton 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Ben Shelton
Frances Tiafoe
61%39%
Hard: 67% / 33%
Clay: 49% / 51%
Grass: 52% / 48%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Ben Shelton
99th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Return
Ben Shelton
60th · average
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#13
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
193cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Ben Shelton■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
Clay1–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | US Open | Hard | SF | Ben Shelton | 4-6 6-3 6-3 7-5 |
| 2025-07-21 | Washington | Hard | QF | Ben Shelton | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2024-08-26 | Us Open | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 4-6 7-5 6-7(5) 6-4 6-3 |
| 2024-04-01 | Houston | Clay | F | Ben Shelton | 7-5 4-6 6-3 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Ben Shelton | 6-2 3-6 7-6(7) 6-2 |