── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Ben Shelton 73% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Ben Shelton
Sebastian Baez
73%27%
Hard: 82% / 18%
Clay: 56% / 44%
Grass: 89% / 11%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Ben Shelton
98th · elite
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Ben Shelton
20th · below avg
Sebastian Baez
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#18
model rank
#77
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
ARG
193cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Ben Shelton■ Sebastian Baez
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-12 | Auckland | Hard | QF | Sebastian Baez | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2023-01-09 | Auckland | Hard | R32 | Ben Shelton | 7-6(1) 6-1 |