── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Carlos Alcaraz 69% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Ben Shelton
Carlos Alcaraz
31%69%
Hard: 34% / 66%
Clay: 9% / 91%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Ben Shelton
99th · elite
Carlos Alcaraz
97th · elite
Return
Ben Shelton
60th · average
Carlos Alcaraz
100th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#5
model rank
#2
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
ESP
193cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Ben Shelton■ Carlos Alcaraz
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
Clay0–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | US Open | Hard | QF | Ben Shelton | 6-7(5) 6-1 6-3 1-6 7-6(7) |
| 2025-05-26 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Carlos Alcaraz | 7-6(8) 6-3 4-6 6-4 |
| 2024-09-20 | Laver Cup | Hard | RR | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-4 6-4 |
| 2023-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Carlos Alcaraz | 6-3 7-6(3) |