── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex Michelsen a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alex Michelsen
Daniel Merida Aguilar
53%47%
Hard: 64% / 36%
Clay: 30% / 70%
Grass: 78% / 22%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alex Michelsen
72th · strong
Daniel Merida Aguilar
39th · below avg
Return
Alex Michelsen
88th · strong
Daniel Merida Aguilar
89th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#24
model rank
#31
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
USA
country
ESP
193cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alex Michelsen■ Daniel Merida Aguilar
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | US Open | Hard | R32 | Alex Michelsen | 7-6(5) 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-08-07 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Daniel Merida Aguilar | 6-4 6-7(4) 6-1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R128 | Alex Michelsen | 6-3 6-4 |