── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Learner Tien
Daniil Medvedev
41%59%
Hard: 35% / 65%
Clay: 32% / 68%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Learner Tien
63th · average
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Return
Learner Tien
95th · elite
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#22
model rank
#8
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
RUS
180cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Learner Tien■ Daniil Medvedev
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-19 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Learner Tien | 6-4 6-0 6-3 |
| 2025-10-01 | Shanghai Masters | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 7-6(6) 6-7(1) 6-4 |
| 2025-09-25 | Beijing | Hard | SF | Learner Tien | 5-7 7-5 4-0 RET |
| 2025-01-13 | Australian Open | Hard | R64 | Learner Tien | 6-3 7-6(4) 6-7(8) 1-6 7-6(7) |