── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Learner Tien a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Learner Tien
Alexander Bublik
55%45%
Hard: 58% / 42%
Clay: 43% / 57%
Grass: 14% / 86%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Learner Tien
68th · average
Alexander Bublik
88th · strong
Return
Learner Tien
91th · elite
Alexander Bublik
51th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#17
model rank
#24
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
KAZ
180cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Learner Tien■ Alexander Bublik
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Geneva | Clay | SF | Learner Tien | 6-1 4-6 7-6(5) |
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Learner Tien | 4-6 6-3 7-5 |