── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Tommy Paul a slight 52% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Learner Tien
Tommy Paul
48%52%
Hard: 53% / 47%
Clay: 30% / 70%
Grass: 16% / 84%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Learner Tien
63th · average
Tommy Paul
81th · strong
Return
Learner Tien
95th · elite
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#22
model rank
#16
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
180cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Learner Tien■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Learner Tien | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | Hard | SF | Tommy Paul | 4-6 6-4 6-3 |