── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Frances Tiafoe a slight 56% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Learner Tien
Frances Tiafoe
44%56%
Hard: 47% / 53%
Clay: 45% / 55%
Grass: 19% / 81%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Learner Tien
63th · average
Frances Tiafoe
77th · strong
Return
Learner Tien
95th · elite
Frances Tiafoe
80th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#22
model rank
#12
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
180cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Learner Tien■ Frances Tiafoe
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-19 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R32 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-4 4-6 6-4 |
| 2026-02-16 | Delray Beach | Hard | QF | Learner Tien | 7-6(5) 3-6 7-5 |
| 2023-08-28 | Us Open | Hard | R128 | Frances Tiafoe | 6-2 7-5 6-1 |