── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Learner Tien 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Learner Tien
Alex Michelsen
66%34%
Hard: 57% / 43%
Clay: 67% / 33%
Grass: 29% / 71%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Learner Tien
68th · average
Alex Michelsen
59th · average
Return
Learner Tien
91th · elite
Alex Michelsen
76th · strong

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#17
model rank
#47
Hard
best surface
Hard
Left
hand
Right
USA
country
USA
180cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Learner TienAlex Michelsen
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay11
Hard12
── 5 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-05-17GenevaClayQFLearner Tien6-4 3-6 6-1
2026-01-04BrisbaneHardR16Alex Michelsen6-4 6-2
2025-07-27Canada MastersHardR16Alex Michelsen6-3 6-3
2025-03-31HoustonClayR32Alex Michelsen6-4 6-2
2024-12-18Next Gen FinalsHardSFLearner Tien2-4 4-2 1-4 4-0 4-1