── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Novak Djokovic 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Novak Djokovic
26%74%
Hard: 24% / 76%
Clay: 27% / 73%
Grass: 5% / 95%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Novak Djokovic
99th · elite
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Novak Djokovic
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#3
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
SRB
185cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Novak Djokovic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Joao Fonseca | 4-6 4-6 6-3 7-5 7-5 |