── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 75% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Marin Cilic
75%25%
Hard: 78% / 22%
Clay: 82% / 18%
Grass: 22% / 78%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
82th · strong
Marin Cilic
77th · strong
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Marin Cilic
43th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#83
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
CRO
185cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Marin Cilic
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Joao Fonseca | W/O |