── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 85% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Kei Nishikori
85%15%
Hard: 81% / 19%
Clay: 78% / 22%
Grass: 33% / 67%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Kei Nishikori
31th · below avg
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Kei Nishikori
77th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#119
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
JPN
185cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Kei Nishikori
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | Phoenix CH | Hard | SF | Joao Fonseca | 6-3 6-3 |