── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 82% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Kei Nishikori
82%18%
Hard: 84% / 16%
Clay: 78% / 22%
Grass: 28% / 72%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
82th · strong
Kei Nishikori
25th · below avg
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Kei Nishikori
73th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#126
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
JPN
185cm
height
178cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Kei Nishikori
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-03-11 | Phoenix CH | Hard | SF | Joao Fonseca | 6-3 6-3 |