── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 87% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Thiago Monteiro
87%13%
Hard: 91% / 9%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 77% / 23%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
82th · strong
Thiago Monteiro
57th · average
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Thiago Monteiro
1th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#154
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Left
BRA
country
BRA
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Thiago Monteiro
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-16 | Rio de Janeiro | Clay | R32 | Joao Fonseca | 7-6(1) 6-1 |