── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Karen Khachanov
55%45%
Hard: 63% / 37%
Clay: 57% / 43%
Grass: 27% / 73%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
83th · strong
Karen Khachanov
89th · strong
Return
Joao Fonseca
88th · strong
Karen Khachanov
81th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#25
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
RUS
185cm
height
198cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Karen Khachanov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R64 | Joao Fonseca | 4-6 7-6(7) 6-4 |
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Karen Khachanov | 6-1 3-6 6-3 |