── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Tommy Paul
54%46%
Hard: 57% / 43%
Clay: 49% / 51%
Grass: 27% / 73%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Tommy Paul
80th · strong
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Tommy Paul
95th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#14
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
USA
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Tommy Paul
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Clay0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Joao Fonseca | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2025-04-23 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Tommy Paul | 7-6(7) 7-6(3) |