── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 68% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Matteo Berrettini
68%32%
Hard: 67% / 33%
Clay: 56% / 44%
Grass: 17% / 83%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Matteo Berrettini
93th · elite
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Matteo Berrettini
37th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#38
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
ITA
185cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Matteo Berrettini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R16 | Joao Fonseca | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2024-09-11 | Davis Cup Finals RR: ITA vs BRA | Hard | RR | Matteo Berrettini | 6-1 7-6(5) |