── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Denis Shapovalov
77%23%
Hard: 64% / 36%
Clay: 81% / 19%
Grass: 62% / 38%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#66
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
BRA
country
CAN
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-27 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Joao Fonseca | 5-7 6-4 6-3 |
| 2025-10-20 | Basel | Hard | QF | Joao Fonseca | 3-6 6-3 4-1 RET |