── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Casper Ruud
58%42%
Hard: 66% / 34%
Clay: 32% / 68%
Grass: 72% / 28%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Casper Ruud
93th · elite
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Casper Ruud
94th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#10
model rank
#11
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
NOR
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Joao Fonseca | 7-5 7-6(8) 5-7 6-2 |