── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Casper Ruud
53%47%
Hard: 72% / 28%
Clay: 34% / 66%
Grass: 70% / 30%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
82th · strong
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Casper Ruud
92th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#20
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
NOR
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Casper Ruud
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Joao Fonseca | 7-6(6) 6-3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Roland Garros | Clay | R16 | Joao Fonseca | 7-5 7-6(8) 5-7 6-2 |