── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca a slight 54% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
54%46%
Hard: 62% / 38%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 28% / 72%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
82th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
78th · strong
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#22
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
ESP
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-10-20 | Basel | Hard | F | Joao Fonseca | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2025-08-07 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Joao Fonseca | 6-7(4) 5-4 RET |