── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Joao Fonseca 79% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Joao Fonseca
Bu Yunchaokete
79%21%
Hard: 81% / 19%
Clay: 84% / 16%
Grass: 62% / 38%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Bu Yunchaokete
53th · average
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Bu Yunchaokete
27th · below avg

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#10
model rank
#78
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
CHN
185cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Joao FonsecaBu Yunchaokete
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Hard10
── 1 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-08-07Cincinnati MastersHardR128Joao Fonseca4-6 6-2 7-5