── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Joao Fonseca 90% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Joao Fonseca
Jacob Fearnley
90%10%
Hard: 89% / 11%
Clay: 79% / 21%
Grass: 62% / 38%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Jacob Fearnley
7th · poor
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Jacob Fearnley
67th · average

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#10
model rank
#158
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
GBR
185cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Joao FonsecaJacob Fearnley
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Grass10
Hard20
── 3 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2025-06-30WimbledonGrassR128Joao Fonseca6-4 6-1 7-6(5)
2025-03-05Indian Wells MastersHardR128Joao Fonseca6-2 1-6 6-3
2024-12-30Canberra CHHardSFJoao Fonseca6-3 6-3