── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 77% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Gabriel Diallo
77%23%
Hard: 81% / 19%
Clay: 83% / 17%
Grass: 41% / 59%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
82th · strong
Gabriel Diallo
67th · average
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Gabriel Diallo
36th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#92
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
CAN
185cm
height
203cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Gabriel Diallo
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Joao Fonseca | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2024-07-29 | Lexington CH | Hard | QF | Joao Fonseca | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2024-07-22 | Chicago CH | Hard | R16 | Gabriel Diallo | 7-6(1) 6-1 |