── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 68% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Joao Fonseca
Raphael Collignon
68%32%
Hard: 77% / 23%
Clay: 62% / 38%
Grass: 57% / 43%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Joao Fonseca
82th · strong
Raphael Collignon
74th · strong
Return
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Raphael Collignon
49th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#15
model rank
#54
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BRA
country
BEL
185cm
height
191cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Joao Fonseca■ Raphael Collignon
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-04 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R128 | Joao Fonseca | 7-6(2) 6-4 |
| 2024-09-14 | Davis Cup Finals RR: BEL vs BRA | Hard | RR | Joao Fonseca | 6-3 6-7(2) 6-3 |