── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Rafael Jodar 72% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Rafael Jodar
Denis Shapovalov
72%28%
Hard: 50% / 50%
Clay: 87% / 13%
Grass: 46% / 54%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Rafael Jodar
68th · average
Denis Shapovalov
61th · average
Return
Rafael Jodar
98th · elite
Denis Shapovalov
85th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#7
model rank
#49
Clay
best surface
Hard
—
hand
Left
ESP
country
CAN
—
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Rafael Jodar■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Rafael Jodar | 7-5 4-6 7-5 |
| 2026-02-09 | Dallas | Hard | R32 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-1 6-2 |