── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court

Win probability

The model makes Rafael Jodar 82% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.

Rafael Jodar
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
82%18%
Hard: 80% / 20%
Clay: 77% / 23%
Grass: 75% / 25%

An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.

── who holds the edge · vs the rated field

Serve & return matchup

Serve
Rafael Jodar
76th · strong
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
24th · below avg
Return
Rafael Jodar
96th · elite
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
50th · average

Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.

── head to head

Compare

#6
model rank
#82
Clay
best surface
Clay
hand
Right
ESP
country
ARG
height
185cm
── model Elo over time

Trajectories

Rafael JodarCamilo Ugo Carabelli
── meetings by surface

Surface record

Clay20
── 2 meetings

Every meeting

datetournamentsurfrdwinnerscore
2026-04-13BarcelonaClayR16Rafael Jodar6-3 6-3
2026-03-30MarrakechClaySFRafael Jodar6-2 6-1