── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alex De Minaur 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Rafael Jodar
Alex De Minaur
39%61%
Hard: 27% / 73%
Clay: 61% / 39%
Grass: 8% / 92%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Rafael Jodar
76th · strong
Alex De Minaur
77th · strong
Return
Rafael Jodar
96th · elite
Alex De Minaur
98th · elite
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#6
model rank
#8
Clay
best surface
Hard
—
hand
Right
ESP
country
AUS
—
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Rafael Jodar■ Alex De Minaur
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Rafael Jodar | 6-3 6-1 |