── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Rafael Jodar 80% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Rafael Jodar
Matteo Arnaldi
80%20%
Hard: 77% / 23%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 67% / 33%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Rafael Jodar
68th · average
Matteo Arnaldi
29th · below avg
Return
Rafael Jodar
98th · elite
Matteo Arnaldi
66th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#7
model rank
#86
Clay
best surface
Clay
—
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
—
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Rafael Jodar■ Matteo Arnaldi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R32 | Rafael Jodar | 6-1 4-6 6-3 |