── the model's take · model grid · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Joao Fonseca 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Rafael Jodar
Joao Fonseca
43%57%
Hard: 32% / 68%
Clay: 62% / 38%
Grass: 24% / 76%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Rafael Jodar
76th · strong
Joao Fonseca
91th · elite
Return
Rafael Jodar
96th · elite
Joao Fonseca
87th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#6
model rank
#10
Clay
best surface
Hard
—
hand
Right
ESP
country
BRA
—
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Rafael Jodar■ Joao Fonseca
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R32 | Rafael Jodar | 7-6(4) 4-6 6-1 |