The model's clear No. 1: Sinner leads Alcaraz by 82 Elo

At the top of the model's order, Jannik Sinner (2526) leads Carlos Alcaraz (2444) by 82 Elo — about a 62% edge on a neutral court. Alcaraz keeps it closest on clay, where the two are nearly level; on every other surface, Sinner is ahead.