── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Grigor Dimitrov 57% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Grigor Dimitrov
Pablo Carreno Busta
57%43%
Hard: 62% / 38%
Clay: 53% / 47%
Grass: 93% / 7%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Grigor Dimitrov
87th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Return
Grigor Dimitrov
80th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#41
model rank
#56
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
BUL
country
ESP
191cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Grigor Dimitrov■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard4–0
Clay1–3
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | R32 | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2021-02-08 | Australian Open | Hard | R32 | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-0 1-0 RET |
| 2018-04-23 | Barcelona | Clay | QF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 7-6(4) |
| 2017-11-13 | Tour Finals | Hard | RR | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2017-05-29 | Roland Garros | Clay | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 7-5 6-3 6-4 |
| 2016-05-02 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 7-6(3) 6-3 |
| 2015-11-02 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-4 6-1 |
| 2014-05-04 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Grigor Dimitrov | 6-2 6-4 |