── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Martin Damm
59%41%
Hard: 64% / 36%
Clay: 80% / 20%
Grass: 27% / 73%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Martin Damm
80th · strong
Return
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Martin Damm
5th · poor
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#59
model rank
#88
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
USA
188cm
height
203cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pablo Carreno Busta■ Martin Damm
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | Q1 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 6-3 |