── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Jan Lennard Struff
61%39%
Hard: 64% / 36%
Clay: 54% / 46%
Grass: 15% / 85%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Jan Lennard Struff
61th · average
Return
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Jan Lennard Struff
50th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#56
model rank
#102
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
GER
188cm
height
193cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pablo Carreno Busta■ Jan Lennard Struff
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–1
Clay2–1
── 7 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | Davis Cup Finals SF: ESP vs GER | Hard | RR | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 7-6(6) |
| 2020-11-02 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 7-6(3) 6-2 |
| 2019-07-22 | Hamburg | Clay | R16 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-1 7-6(4) |
| 2019-01-07 | Auckland | Hard | QF | Jan Lennard Struff | 7-6(5) 6-7(6) 7-6(7) |
| 2016-08-22 | Winston-Salem | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 7-5 |
| 2015-09-14 | Szczecin CH | Clay | QF | Jan Lennard Struff | 6-1 7-6(1) |
| 2014-04-13 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | Q1 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 5-7 6-4 6-2 |