── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 73% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Roberto Carballes Baena
73%27%
Hard: 70% / 30%
Clay: 67% / 33%
Grass: 51% / 49%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Roberto Carballes Baena
22th · below avg
Return
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Roberto Carballes Baena
58th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#56
model rank
#147
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ESP
188cm
height
183cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pablo Carreno Busta■ Roberto Carballes Baena
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay8–1
Hard0–1
Grass0–1
Carpet1–0
── 12 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-16 | Murcia CH | Clay | F | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2026-02-09 | Rotterdam | Hard | Q1 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 6-4 3-6 6-1 |
| 2024-06-24 | Mallorca | Grass | R32 | Roberto Carballes Baena | 7-6(4) 4-6 7-6(3) |
| 2016-02-22 | Sao Paulo | Clay | QF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2013-07-15 | Poznan CH | Clay | QF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 3-6 6-0 7-6(5) |
| 2013-06-17 | Tanger CH | Clay | QF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 2-6 6-1 7-5 |
| 2013-03-18 | Spain F7 | Carpet | F | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 6-7(3) 6-3 |
| 2013-03-11 | Spain F6 | Clay | SF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-2 6-3 |
| 2013-02-25 | Spain F4 | Clay | F | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-1 6-0 |
| 2013-02-18 | Spain F3 | Clay | F | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-7(7) 6-3 6-3 |
| 2011-08-08 | Spain F28 | Clay | SF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2010-09-06 | Spain F32 | Clay | F | Roberto Carballes Baena | 6-4 6-2 |