── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Berrettini a slight 55% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Matteo Berrettini
45%55%
Hard: 49% / 51%
Clay: 33% / 67%
Grass: 6% / 94%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Matteo Berrettini
94th · elite
Return
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Matteo Berrettini
35th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#59
model rank
#40
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
188cm
height
196cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pablo Carreno Busta■ Matteo Berrettini
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | Davis Cup Finals F: ITA vs ESP | Hard | RR | Matteo Berrettini | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Matteo Berrettini | 7-5 7-6(4) 6-4 |