── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta a slight 53% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Denis Shapovalov
53%47%
Hard: 39% / 61%
Clay: 64% / 36%
Grass: 27% / 73%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Denis Shapovalov
51th · average
Return
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Denis Shapovalov
82th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#56
model rank
#66
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
CAN
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pablo Carreno Busta■ Denis Shapovalov
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard6–1
Clay0–1
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Dubai | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-2 6-4 |
| 2022-10-31 | Paris Masters | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 7-6(2) 2-6 6-4 |
| 2022-01-03 | Atp Cup | Hard | F | Denis Shapovalov | 6-4 6-3 |
| 2020-08-31 | Us Open | Hard | QF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 3-6 7-6(5) 7-6(4) 0-6 6-3 |
| 2019-10-21 | Vienna | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 7-5 |
| 2019-09-23 | Chengdu | Hard | SF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2019-05-13 | Rome Masters | Clay | R64 | Denis Shapovalov | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2017-08-28 | US Open | Hard | R16 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 7-6(2) 7-6(4) 7-6(3) |