── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Sebastian Baez
59%41%
Hard: 66% / 34%
Clay: 48% / 52%
Grass: 54% / 46%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Return
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#59
model rank
#89
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ARG
188cm
height
170cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pablo Carreno Busta■ Sebastian Baez
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–0
Hard1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Valencia CH | Clay | R16 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 5-7 7-5 7-5 |
| 2025-08-17 | Winston-Salem | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Baez | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 4-6 6-2 |