── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 78% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Luca Nardi
78%22%
Hard: 71% / 29%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 63% / 37%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Luca Nardi
9th · poor
Return
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Luca Nardi
34th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#59
model rank
#174
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ITA
188cm
height
185cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pablo Carreno Busta■ Luca Nardi
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–0
Clay1–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-23 | Dubai | Hard | Q2 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-7(4) 6-4 7-6(5) |
| 2022-07-18 | Hamburg | Clay | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-2 6-1 |