── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Pablo Carreno Busta
Mattia Bellucci
66%34%
Hard: 56% / 44%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 20% / 80%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Mattia Bellucci
34th · below avg
Return
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Mattia Bellucci
24th · below avg
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#56
model rank
#123
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Left
ESP
country
ITA
188cm
height
175cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Pablo Carreno Busta■ Mattia Bellucci
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | Q1 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 2-6 7-6(3) |
| 2023-10-09 | Malaga CH | Hard | R16 | Mattia Bellucci | 6-3 7-6(0) |