── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Daniil Medvedev 74% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Daniil Medvedev
Pablo Carreno Busta
74%26%
Hard: 79% / 21%
Clay: 71% / 29%
Grass: 90% / 10%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Daniil Medvedev
82th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Return
Daniil Medvedev
98th · elite
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#8
model rank
#59
Hard
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
198cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Daniil Medvedev■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard5–2
Grass1–0
── 8 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-02 | Beijing | Hard | R32 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-4 6-2 |
| 2021-11-28 | Davis Cup Finals RR: ESP vs RTF | Hard | RR | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 7-6(3) |
| 2021-08-16 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | QF | Daniil Medvedev | 6-1 6-1 |
| 2021-07-24 | Tokyo Olympics | Hard | QF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-2 7-6(5) |
| 2021-06-21 | Mallorca | Grass | SF | Daniil Medvedev | 3-6 6-3 6-2 |
| 2018-10-29 | Paris Masters | Hard | R64 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-2 6-2 |
| 2018-03-05 | Indian Wells Masters | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-1 7-5 |
| 2017-10-16 | Moscow | Hard | R16 | Daniil Medvedev | 6-3 6-3 |