── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Andrey Rublev 63% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Andrey Rublev
Pablo Carreno Busta
63%37%
Hard: 60% / 40%
Clay: 78% / 22%
Grass: 84% / 16%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Andrey Rublev
88th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Return
Andrey Rublev
80th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#28
model rank
#59
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
RUS
country
ESP
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Andrey Rublev■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard3–0
Clay2–0
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Cincinnati Masters | Hard | R64 | Andrey Rublev | 7-6(5) 6-1 |
| 2024-09-26 | Beijing | Hard | R32 | Andrey Rublev | 6-0 4-6 6-4 |
| 2019-07-22 | Hamburg | Clay | SF | Andrey Rublev | 4-6 7-5 6-1 |
| 2015-05-10 | Rome Masters | Clay | Q1 | Andrey Rublev | 6-4 6-7(6) 6-3 |
| 2015-03-25 | Miami Masters | Hard | R128 | Andrey Rublev | 1-6 6-1 6-4 |