── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Tabilo 62% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alejandro Tabilo
Pablo Carreno Busta
62%38%
Hard: 51% / 49%
Clay: 63% / 37%
Grass: 81% / 19%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alejandro Tabilo
78th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Return
Alejandro Tabilo
59th · average
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#30
model rank
#56
Clay
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
CHI
country
ESP
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alejandro Tabilo■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard0–2
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Rome Masters | Clay | R128 | Alejandro Tabilo | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Olbia CH | Hard | QF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 1-6 7-6(3) |
| 2022-01-03 | Atp Cup | Hard | RR | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 7-6(4) |