── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Matteo Berrettini 58% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Matteo Berrettini
Pablo Carreno Busta
58%42%
Hard: 58% / 42%
Clay: 66% / 34%
Grass: 96% / 4%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Matteo Berrettini
93th · elite
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Return
Matteo Berrettini
37th · below avg
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#38
model rank
#56
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ITA
country
ESP
196cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Matteo Berrettini■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard2–1
── 3 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-23 | Davis Cup Finals F: ITA vs ESP | Hard | RR | Matteo Berrettini | 6-3 6-4 |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R64 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 6-2 |
| 2022-01-17 | Australian Open | Hard | R16 | Matteo Berrettini | 7-5 7-6(4) 6-4 |