── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 68% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
Pablo Carreno Busta
32%68%
Hard: 18% / 82%
Clay: 53% / 47%
Grass: 24% / 76%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
18th · poor
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Return
Camilo Ugo Carabelli
37th · below avg
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#132
model rank
#59
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
ESP
185cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Camilo Ugo Carabelli■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay2–0
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Umag | Clay | R16 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 3-6 7-5 7-5 |
| 2025-05-07 | Rome Masters | Clay | R128 | Camilo Ugo Carabelli | 6-2 1-6 6-3 |