── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Alejandro Davidovich Fokina 61% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
Pablo Carreno Busta
61%39%
Hard: 62% / 38%
Clay: 57% / 43%
Grass: 80% / 20%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
58th · average
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Return
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina
90th · elite
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#33
model rank
#56
Hard
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
ESP
country
ESP
183cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Alejandro Davidovich Fokina■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
── 1 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-22 | Madrid Masters | Clay | R64 | Alejandro Davidovich Fokina | 6-3 6-3 |