── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 59% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Sebastian Baez
Pablo Carreno Busta
41%59%
Hard: 34% / 66%
Clay: 52% / 48%
Grass: 46% / 54%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Sebastian Baez
23th · below avg
Pablo Carreno Busta
48th · average
Return
Sebastian Baez
78th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
67th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#89
model rank
#59
Clay
best surface
Hard
Right
hand
Right
ARG
country
ESP
170cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Sebastian Baez■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay0–2
Hard1–1
── 4 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-12 | Valencia CH | Clay | R16 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 5-7 7-5 7-5 |
| 2025-08-17 | Winston-Salem | Hard | R32 | Sebastian Baez | 7-5 6-2 |
| 2022-10-24 | Basel | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-2 6-1 |
| 2022-04-11 | Monte Carlo Masters | Clay | R64 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 4-6 6-2 |