── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Holger Rune 68% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Holger Rune
Pablo Carreno Busta
68%32%
Hard: 69% / 31%
Clay: 76% / 24%
Grass: 83% / 17%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Holger Rune
76th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Return
Holger Rune
86th · strong
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#20
model rank
#56
Clay
best surface
Clay
Right
hand
Right
DEN
country
ESP
188cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Holger Rune■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Clay1–0
Hard1–2
Grass0–1
── 5 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-09-13 | Davis Cup QLS R2: DEN vs ESP | Clay | RR | Holger Rune | 7-5 6-3 |
| 2024-08-05 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Holger Rune | 6-1 6-3 |
| 2022-08-08 | Canada Masters | Hard | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-0 6-3 |
| 2022-06-13 | Halle | Grass | R32 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-3 7-6(5) |
| 2021-09-20 | Metz | Hard | QF | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 3-6 6-4 |