── the model's take · from Elo · neutral court
Win probability
The model makes Pablo Carreno Busta 66% favourite on a neutral court; the surface splits below move it.
Mattia Bellucci
Pablo Carreno Busta
34%66%
Hard: 44% / 56%
Clay: 24% / 76%
Grass: 80% / 20%
An analytical read from the model's Elo — not a betting signal.
── who holds the edge · vs the rated field
Serve & return matchup
Serve
Mattia Bellucci
34th · below avg
Pablo Carreno Busta
42th · average
Return
Mattia Bellucci
24th · below avg
Pablo Carreno Busta
62th · average
Model serve/return ratings as a percentile of the rated tour — the edge behind the win probability.
── head to head
Compare
#123
model rank
#56
Hard
best surface
Clay
Left
hand
Right
ITA
country
ESP
175cm
height
188cm
── model Elo over time
Trajectories
■ Mattia Bellucci■ Pablo Carreno Busta
── meetings by surface
Surface record
Hard1–1
── 2 meetings
Every meeting
| date | tournament | surf | rd | winner | score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-04 | Brisbane | Hard | Q1 | Pablo Carreno Busta | 6-4 2-6 7-6(3) |
| 2023-10-09 | Malaga CH | Hard | R16 | Mattia Bellucci | 6-3 7-6(0) |